ICSC at COP28: What transpired in this year’s UN climate conference?

The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) joined this year’s United Nations Conference of Parties (COP28), held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates from November 30 to December 13. 

The organization actively participated in discussions and activities on the Global Stocktake (GST), adaptation and mitigation, energy, finance, loss and damage, and innovative climate action. ICSC also monitored critical negotiations at the annual climate conference.

COP28 marked the conclusion of the first GST, where countries and other stakeholders take inventory of the world’s collective progress towards achieving Paris Agreement goals. Yet, as COP28 concluded, experts and observer organizations fear an overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement is imminent, as the decision on key issues and across the negotiations lacked ambition. 

What are the events that transpired in this year’s UN climate conference? What opportunities lie ahead as the world moves forward to 2024?

Adaptation

• The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was revived and a framework was adopted, although it is still weak. The framework aims to establish climate information services for risk reduction and systematic observations and multi-hazard early warning systems by 2027, and set up impact, vulnerability, and risk assessments by 2030.

• The sizable adaptation finance gap was recognized, but not sufficiently addressed. Hence, Party and non-Party stakeholders strongly called to double adaptation finance commitments by 2025. This has highlighted the need to close the widening adaptation finance gap, technology development and capacity-building mechanisms for adaptation remain insufficient.

Energy and just transition

• A milestone at COP28 is the global pledge to triple installed capacity of renewable energy and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, which was supported by 130 national governments. The GST decision called for a “transitioning away from fossil fuels… in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” marking the first time fossil fuels were explicitly called out in a COP decision. However, there was no agreement on the phaseout of fossil fuels.

• • The Stocktake also still made space for “transitional fuels”.
  • The GST decision also called on countries to accelerate emissions reductions from road transport, which according to the Mitigation Work Program (MWP) decision includes “collective and non-motorized modes of transport” – alongside “electrification of vehicles and shifting to lower zero-carbon fuels”. This would mean improved public transportation  and cycling infrastructure has the potential of reducing road transport emissions.
  • Nuclear energy, as well as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), were listed with renewables as among “zero- and low-emission technologies” to be accelerated in the stocktake decision, which could further delay the transition to clean, affordable, reliable, and secure energy, particularly in countries that have access to indigenous, clean, and renewable energy sources.

• The Just Transition Work Programme recognized labor rights, social protection, and participatory approach as important elements to facilitate the just transition pathways.

Climate finance

• Climate finance is set to become an even bigger issue in 2024, at COP29 in Azerbaijan when a new and equitable finance goal is expected to be agreed upon. In preparation for this, high-level ministerial dialogues on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) were made at COP28.
  • NCQG discussions in COP28 highlighted the missed collective target of the USD 100 billion goal and emphasized the financial needs of developing countries, Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), whose estimated amount of shortfall developed countries were unable to provide.
• The GST decision recognized the need to address debt and reform the international finance architecture. 
  • Several countries have also signed off on a declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework launched at COP28, recognizing the need to reform the international finance architecture to be fit for climate and to ensure that climate finance is accessible and available to vulnerable countries.
  • The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) and Vulnerable 20 (V20) Group of Finance Ministers, composed of 68 member countries highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, are among the coalitions that have continuously raised the urgent need to reform the international debt and climate finance system. 
  • More countries pledged to the Green Climate Fund at COP28, bringing the total for the second replenishment to USD 12.8 billion.

Loss and damage

• Loss and damage (L&D) was referred to as the third pillar of action under the Paris Agreement, highlighting the importance of a separate response measure to climate change impacts that are unavoidable despite mitigation and adaptation efforts.
• The Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) became operational at COP28’s opening day, with USD 792 million pledged to the Fund so far, out of the USD 85 billion total pledges made at COP28.
  • Estimates of the required L&D funding of developing countries range from USD 100-580 billion annually. In a report released by the CVF and V20 Group. About USD 525 billion in L&D has been incurred by 55 developing economies, including the Philippines, in the past two decades. 
• The Global Shield against Climate Risks of the V20 Group and G7 was welcomed in the LDF decision, with other initiatives meant to form part of the “mosaic of solutions” to complement the Fund.
  • Pre-arranged finance, along with other instruments for climate and disaster risk finance and insurance, were also considered in the LDF’s potential financial instruments.

More on the first GST (GST1)

• Multilateralism was highlighted as a core driver of international cooperation in GST1, aiming to address interconnected issues of climate change and development, leveraging collaboration between countries and non-government stakeholders.
• The collective progress, gaps, and challenges in GST1, along with opportunities that will come post-COP, can serve as a guide for countries in updating their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), or climate pledges.
• Developing and developed countries notably remained at odds during the discussions, particularly on concerns rooted in historical responsibility and text-specific context on the phase out, abatement, and transition of fuels.

Moving forward: Partnerships and locally-led action

ICSC strongly affirms the importance of science and evidence in discussions and outcomes of global negotiations, including on climate change. Engaging stakeholders on the ground is just as crucial, and should help inform decisions at the national, regional, and global level. 

Equity and inclusivity are vital. COP28 serves as a venue where governments, private sector, civil society, people’s organizations, and local and Indigenous communities share the same goals of building a survivable and sustainable future where everyone can survive and thrive. Partnerships are key to making climate and energy ambitions actionable and attainable.

For more information about ICSC’s involvement in COP28, along with the list of side events, visit https://icsc.ngo/portfolio-items/cop28/.  

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