QUEZON CITY, 07 March 2025 – In response to the yellow alert raised in the Luzon Grid on March 5, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) underscores the looming threat of more grid alerts in coming months as the dry season approaches. This year’s early occurrence is particularly concerning, as similar alerts in previous years were typically issued closer to peak summer months, such as April or May. For instance, the first yellow alert in 2024 was declared on April 16, significantly later than this year’s March 5 alert. 

Two primary factors are driving this situation: a surge in electricity demand and a significant reduction in supply due to forced outages of baseload power plants.  

The spike in demand is largely attributed to higher-than-normal temperatures across the region. Several areas have experienced a heat index exceeding 40°C, leading to increased reliance on cooling appliances such as air conditioners and fans. This increased demand, coupled with supply constraints, has placed immense pressure on the grid.

On the supply side, several baseload power plants are currently offline due to both planned and unplanned outages. The unplanned outages include:

  • GNPD 1 (668 MW) – offline since February 28
  • Masinloc 1 (315 MW) – offline since February 14
  • SMC Limay 2 (134 MW) – offline since February 15
  • Pagbilao 1 (382 MW) – offline since February 26
  • Sta Rita 3 (260 MW) – offline since March 1

These incidents are not isolated. Unplanned outages have been occurring frequently and are becoming more noticeable during summer due to higher energy demand. In May 2024, 21 out of 31 days of the month experienced either yellow or red alerts, which were largely caused by forced outages of coal-fired power plants.

Additionally, planned outages have further reduced available capacity:

  • GN Mariveles 2 (316 MW) – offline since February 7
  • Pagbilao 3 (420 MW) – offline since January 4

Moreover, several baseload plants are operating at derated capacity, further limiting the grid’s available supply:

  • Sual 1 – operating at only 235 MW out of 647 MW
  • Sual 2 – operating at only 480 MW out of 647 MW
  • Ilijan 2 – operating at only 295 MW out of 600 MW

Despite the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) projecting merely a 2-3% probability of grid disruptions from March 3-9, 2025, the early issuance of a yellow alert on March 5 signals a growing concern, as NGCP’s own analysis indicates a significantly higher probability of red and yellow alerts in April to June 2025. This early alert, despite the low probability, raises an important point: If a yellow alert can occur with only a 2-3% probability, imagine what will happen in a 70% probability scenario in April and May. With conditions like these, we may see even more frequent yellow or red alerts in the Luzon Grid  as temperatures rise in the coming months.

To mitigate these risks, immediate and decisive action is required from energy stakeholders. Key measures include:

  1. Ensuring strict compliance with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP): This will help minimize unplanned outages and improve the reliability of power plants.
  2. Timely commissioning of committed capacities: With 2,232 MW of additional capacity expected to come online until the second quarter of this year, it is crucial to ensure these projects are completed on schedule to bolster supply (includes 1,320 MW from natural gas plants, 491 MW from solar, and 218 MW from wind that is scheduled to be commissioned within the first half of 2025)
  3. Implementing demand-side management programs: Encouraging energy-efficient practices during peak hours and using time-shifting strategies to move energy use to off-peak times can help reduce strain on the grid and balance supply and demand.

ABOUT

The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities is a Philippine-based non-governmental organization that advances climate, energy, and low-carbon solutions to enable fair and climate-resilient development at the national and international levels.

CONTACT

Sanafe Marcelo, ICSC: media@icsc.ngo, +63968 886 3466, +63917 149 5649

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