Luzon Power Outlook:
Determining the Adequacy of Power Supply for April-June 2022

Authors:   Alberto Dalusung III, Jephraim Manansala, Marion Lois Tan
Contributors:    Atty. Pedro Maniego Jr, Mila Jude

08 February 2022

This paper takes a deep dive into National Grid Corporation of the Philippines’ (NGCP) Weekly Demand, Supply, and Operating Profile Report for 2022 to assess the adequacy of the power supply for the 2nd Quarter (Q2) of 2022. While it was noted in the NGCP report that there would be sufficient power supply during the said period, the assumptions used were optimistic. There was no consideration of unplanned outages and derated plant capacities that could significantly deplete the power supply of the grid. Moreover, the report observes sufficient but thin reserves before and after the elections period, showing that NGCP’s most optimistic scenario still slides into dangerous territory.

By applying more conservative assumptions, findings show that the power supply outlook is very tight for Q2 2022, with a possibility of red alert status, high electricity costs, and rotating blackouts across the Luzon grid. The yellow alert status last January 11, 2022, supports this finding. Typically, the demand during January is lower due to cooler temperatures. But despite this, the 2,317 MW operating reserves projected by the NGCP depleted to 388 MW (an 83% drop) when several coal plants went on forced outages, showing this factor to be an essential consideration in a power outlook.