QUEZON CITY,  April 3, 2025 – The Luzon and Visayas grids are expected to experience scarcer power reserves in June this year, while the Mindanao grid is projected to maintain normal reserves this summer and is capable of exporting power as a larger supply is available.

That said, the Visayas grid can maintain normal reserves in the second quarter of 2025, but is completely dependent on imports from Luzon and Mindanao. 

In the report entitled “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply from April to June 2025” launched today, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) assessed the country’s readiness to address the anticipated increase in demand in the upcoming hot and dry season. This is the fourth annual release of the Power Outlook Report, which was launched in 2022. The reports have consistently shown that power supply issues in the second quarter of each year has been a recurring concern in the country.

“Although elevated electricity demand during the summer contributes to power supply issues experienced in these months, forced outages of baseload power plants have constantly exacerbated the situation,” said Jephraim Manansala, ICSC’s Chief Data Scientist and co-author of the report. 

Citing this year’s first yellow alert raised by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) over the Luzon grid on March 5, ICSC noted that seven baseload coal power plants were on outage that day, which resulted in a total of 2,495 megawatts (MW) of power being unavailable to the grid, further emphasizing the grid’s vulnerability. In addition, three coal plants were also operating on derated or reduced capacities on March 5.

“Power plant outages, especially unplanned ones, and plants running at a derated capacity, can severely disrupt the balance between supply and demand, significantly hindering the grid’s ability to meet the country’s growing energy needs — especially during peak demand hours,” Manansala added.

In the report, ICSC assessed the operating margins, or the difference between available generating capacity and peak demand, in the country’s three main island grids based on the 2025 Weekly Demand, Supply, and Operating Margin Profile issued by the NGCP and the Department of Energy (DOE) in December 2024. 

Findings showed that the Luzon grid will likely have normal reserves in April, with yellow alerts possible in May, and red alerts possible in June. The Luzon grid is projected to export power to the Visayas grid through the 250 MW high voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnection from March 31 to June 1 (Weeks 14-22 of 2025), to ensure sufficient reserves in Visayas. However, it will need to restrict exports in Week 23, particularly on June 2-8, as this is the tightest period for Luzon given the reduced coal generation of around 842 MW forecasted by the NGCP and DOE, potentially leading to red grid alert levels.

The Visayas grid, on the other hand, is expected to maintain normal reserves in the second quarter, but remains heavily dependent on imports from Luzon and Mindanao. In addition, yellow alerts are possible in June, as Luzon may restrict exports due to inadequate power supply in the said period. 

Visayas presents a unique case, according to ICSC, as it comprises five large island grids that are interconnected by transmission lines of varying capacities, resulting in transmission constraints between islands. Despite this setup, the Visayas grid is treated as a unified system in the NGCP and DOE’s outlook. Manansala noted that implementing a more detailed and granular monitoring strategy in Visayas can help identify and address potential power supply issues at a localized level before they escalate. 

“Incidents like the Panay Island blackouts in January 2024 could have been avoided through more granular monitoring, because by focusing on localized data, grid operators can respond more effectively to emerging challenges,” he added.

Unlike Luzon and Visayas, the Mindanao grid is projected to maintain normal reserves from April to June and is capable of exporting power, particularly to Visayas, because of its large power supply. With its existing and committed generation capacities, Mindanao can maintain sufficient reserve levels even while exporting 450 MW to Visayas. However, it can reduce exports if necessary to ensure sufficient reserves in its grid.

The delivery of committed capacities based on the DOE’s list of upcoming power plants, which are mostly composed of renewable energy power plants, are highly crucial to ensure sufficient reserves for the three main island grids this quarter, according to ICSC. In addition, existing power plants should ensure strict compliance with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) to minimize forced outages and ensure grid stability and reliability.

REPORT ACCESS
Visit bit.ly/PowerOutlook2025 to get a copy of the report.

PHOTOS
Media briefing photos can be accessed here.
Photos (c) Sanaf Marcelo/ICSC

CONTACT
Sanaf Marcelo, ICSC: media@icsc.ngo, +63 968 886 3466, +63 917 149 5649

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